AWWA ACE63159

Most water utilities operate in an environment of uncertainty, including meteorological, technical, physical,and political risk factors that affect their ability to meet water supply planning objectives. Identifying theserisk factors and characterizing their water supply consequences are an important step in development ofa long-term water supply plan. CDM has developed an approach to incorporating risk into the formulationof a water supply strategy.Risk issues fall into two categories: risks along a continuum, such as hydrology/weather or water quality;and, risks of discrete events, such as technological failures or regulatory restrictions.The Santa Clara Valley Water District's key internal and external stakeholders were asked what risks anduncertainties concern them that could affect the District's water outlook. In order to keep the evaluationmanageable, the most significant, representative, and quantifiable risks were carried through the riskanalysis. For example, earthquakes along one of several faults, terrorist activities, and other catastrophicevents could all result in infrastructure failure. Of these risk factors, an earthquake in the Delta wasidentified as having the most significant water supply impacts, as it could interfere with both of theDistrict's imported water supply systems.District staff and outside experts were interviewed to estimate the probabilities and consequences of eachrisk factor. The results were presented to the stakeholders for their comments. Once the key risks wereidentified, the technical team developed different scenarios, each corresponding to a differentcombination of risk factors, and identifying what actions would be required to meet each possible futureshould it arise. The risk analysis model was used to evaluate both the current baseline and alternativewater supply portfolios. Includes figures.

Product Details

Edition:

Vol. - No.

Published:

06/01/2006

Number of Pages:

21

File Size:

1 file , 290 KB